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Recent reporting from Bloomberg, TD Economics, and Retail Banker International provides three different views of the environment facing U.S. small businesses as we enter the fourth quarter of 2026. The data covers a range of crucial subjects from business-owner confidence, business formation, hiring, operating costs, technology adoption, and changes taking place within small-business lending.
Small-business optimism moved lower in September
Bloomberg reported on October 13 that the National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.8 point in September to 97.9, its lowest level in three months.
The index was just below its 52-year average of 98.0. Six of the 10 components included in the index declined during the month.
Several individual measures provide additional context:
97.9 — NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in September
90 — NFIB Uncertainty Index, compared with a historical average of 68
7% — Share of owners reporting that it was a good time to expand
6% — Net share expecting better business conditions over the next six months
26% — Owners identifying labor quality or availability as their top business problem
20% — Owners identifying inflation as their top business problem
The percentage of owners describing the current environment as a good time to expand fell five percentage points from August. Expectations for better business conditions declined four points.
Credit conditions also appeared in the September data. The NFIB reported an average interest rate of 8.2% on short-maturity loans, up 0.7 percentage point from August. A net 8% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan.
Business formation and investment are continuing
A separate TD Economics analysis provides a broader view of how small businesses have been operating through changing economic conditions.
TD reported that the number of U.S. business establishments increased by approximately 250,000, or 2.1%, year over year through the third quarter of 2025. Small Business Administration lending activity also increased during fiscal 2025, with the number of approved applications rising 11% and total approved loan dollars increasing 20% from the previous year.
The composition of new businesses is also changing.
Healthcare and professional and technical services accounted for approximately two-thirds of new business establishments during the period analyzed by TD. Healthcare and social assistance alone added approximately 111,000 establishments, representing nearly half of the new businesses created during the 12 months ending in the third quarter of 2025.
Professional and technical services accounted for another 15% of new firms. At the same time, technology-intensive businesses represented a smaller share of new business creation than in previous years. Their share fell from an average of approximately 13% between 2021 and 2023 to 2.9% in the third quarter of 2025.
TD also reported changes in how small businesses are using artificial intelligence.
69% of small-business owners surveyed said they were using AI to reduce expenses in 2026, compared with 39% a year earlier. Separately cited Commerce Department data showed reported small-business AI use increasing from 23% in 2023 to 58% in 2025.
Business applications have remained active as well. TD reported 504,754 business applications in March 2026, compared with 426,268 in March 2025. Applications in professional, scientific and technical services increased 34% year over year.
Source: TD Economics/TD Stories, “U.S. Small Businesses Adapt to Shifting Economic Tides,” May–June 2026.
Small-business lending is also changing
While Bloomberg and TD focus primarily on business owners and economic conditions, Retail Banker International examined the other side of the credit relationship: how financial institutions provide small-business loans.
The article covers Celent's report, “Blueprint for Intelligent Small Business Credit Part 1: Achieving Viable Economics.” Celent's research focuses on a longstanding challenge in small-business banking: making smaller-dollar business loans economically viable for financial institutions while serving business segments that may be difficult to support through traditional lending processes.
The report states that the vast majority of small-business credit providers struggle with the economics of smaller loans and underserved business types. It examines how lenders are using technology, data and redesigned processes to address those costs.
Celent organizes the work around four areas:
- Know Your Customer/Know Your Business
Improving how lenders collect and evaluate information about borrowers.
- Service-level agreements across teams
Creating clearer processes and responsibilities across the lending organization.
- AI, alternative data and redesigned workflows
Using technology and additional data sources within credit processes.
- New lending models
Examining different approaches to serving small-business borrowers and improving the economics of small loans.
Retail Banker International reports that Celent sees AI as one of the technologies being applied to lower servicing costs, improve customer experience and support risk pricing.
Three views of the small-business environment
The three reports cover different periods and different aspects of small business, so their findings are not directly comparable. Together, however, they provide a snapshot of several developments occurring at the same time.
Small-business optimism declined in September, with labor availability, inflation and uncertainty prominent in the NFIB data. Business formation and SBA lending activity increased in the periods examined by TD, while healthcare and professional services accounted for a large portion of new establishments. AI adoption among small businesses also increased substantially in the surveys cited by TD.
At the same time, Celent's research describes changes occurring within small-business credit as lenders evaluate technology, alternative data and new processes for originating and servicing smaller loans.
For business owners and those who work with them, these reports provide a useful set of data points for following how the small-business environment continues to develop through 2026.